Kylian Mbappé Joins Real Madrid: Implications and Expectations

Thus ends nearly a half-decade of coy will-he-wont-he between Mbappe, Real Madrid president Florentino Perez, a succession of Paris Saint-Germain managers, every French player on Real Madrid, PSG president Nasser Al-Khelaifi, and even the French prime minister, Emmanuel Macron.

While it's normal to feel worn down by this saga -- as well as a resignation at the inevitability of Real Madrid signing the best soccer player in the world -- this is still quite rare. The best soccer player in the world rarely changes teams because whatever team is employing the best soccer player in the world (A) wants to keep said player, and (B) likely has enough money to continue employing said player.

The last time the best player in the world changed teams was maybe Lionel Messi, who moved from Barcelona to Paris Saint-Germain in the summer of 2021, thanks to Barca's incredible financial incompetence. But Messi was already 34 years old at that point. The last time the best player in the world changed teams in his prime arguably was when Cristiano Ronaldo went from Manchester United to Real Madrid in 2009, or more likely when the Brazilian Ronaldo changed from Inter Milan to Real Madrid in 2002.

Sensing a theme here? On the rare occasion a young, established, worldwide superstar switches teams, he tends to join Real Madrid. Let's break down the implications for the player, his new club, and his old club.

What it means for Real Madrid

So, is it as simple as that? The best player in the world is joining what's already the best team in the world? A side that's already filled with other stars currently in their mid-to-early-20s? A team that's only really missing a go-to goal scorer?

This shouldn't be complicated... right?

While I do think we tend to unnecessarily complicate this and every other sport -- the best players win games, and you win more games by acquiring better players -- there is a kind of diminishing returns here. Bear with me for second: If you could clone prime Lionel Messi, you'd win more games, but how many times would you want to clone him? Would a team of 11 Messis be better than a team of, say, three Messis, supported by other players who cover up the weaknesses and deficiencies of their trio of superstar clones? While I would pay money to see the former function, my instinct is that the latter would be the more effective team.

So, will Real Madrid be able to find the right balance with Mbappé in the team? Per FBref's similar-player algorithm, the most similar player to Mbappé is Vinícius Júnior; the second-most similar is Rodrygo. Or: the two players he'll be sharing a front line with at Real Madrid.

This isn't a bad thing, necessarily. Ian Graham, former head of research at Liverpool and one of the masterminds behind the signings of Mohamed Salah, Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mané, has told me that the team purposefully targeted attacking players with diverse and overlapping skill sets. This made Liverpool's attacking movements more fluid and unpredictable -- all three players could execute any fundamental decision (dribble, pass, shoot) in any situation.

In Mbappé, Vinicius Junior, and Rodrygo, all three players are fantastic dribblers and shot-getters. None of them are world-class passers, but they've all shown the capacity to create quality shots for their teammates because of how good they all are at getting into dangerous areas. Amid the loose positional guidelines implemented by Real Madrid coach Carlo Ancelotti -- he more or less trusts his attackers to figure it out -- this could and probably should be a devastating trio.